Forum:2011 Pacific hurricane season
Welcome Here's 2011! I believe we could get an El Nino this year, so I'm thinking an above-average season. Anyone have specific calls? Just like I did with the Atlantic hurricane season, the /Betting pools/ are here, too! Ryan1000 21:18, January 18, 2011 (UTC) :I guess I'll go with 17-9-4 (named-hurricanes-major) Yqt1001 02:18, February 2, 2011 (UTC) ::I think we will have 14-19 storms, 7-10 hurricanes, 4-6 majors, and I'm not sure about cat. 5's; we've had one here for two straight years; that's a record as it is, and saying we'll have another one for 3 straight years is a bit too generous for the EPac IMO. Ryan1000 21:49, February 2, 2011 (UTC) ::15-6-3 is my guess. YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'''ropical]] ::And it is officially hurricane season! yay! YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'ropical]] 00:07, May 15, 2011 (UTC) :It has been cyclone season in the SHem Forum beforehand, but anyways, happy hurricane season! Adrian will be on our hands likely in the next week or two. Then, we'll get many more storms from there. Unlike 2010, an El Nino could happen this year, so an active season could be on our way! Ryan1000 12:54, May 15, 2011 (UTC) August 05E.EUGENE Aoi:over CA New wave about to enter the EPAC. YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'ropical]] 15:21, July 26, 2011 (UTC) : Now it´s up to 20%. This thing has a chance of becoming Eugene as it heads WNW, but it likely won't affect land. Let´s hope it becomes our 5th hurricane though, we're really getting a lot of hurricanes here. 'Ryan1000' 12:48, July 28, 2011 (UTC) :::We could see Eugene this weekend. YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'ropical]] 15:17, July 28, 2011 (UTC) ::: ::: :::Also, if 95E becomes a hurricane, we would be the first season since 1966 to have the first five tropical storms become hurricanes. This invest could get quite unique in the next week. Hurricane Andrew (aka User: Andrew444) 01:33, July 29, 2011 (UTC) ::::Down to 10%. YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'ropical]] 04:41, July 29, 2011 (UTC) :::::Now near 0%. Maybe Eugene will have to wait after all. 1966 had the first 6 storms become hurricanes, but we might have missed a few storms back then, so if you only count since 1971, then this year ties 1971 itself for the record. The record in question for ''number of consecutive hurricanes in EPac is apparently held by an 8 hurricane streak in 1992, not since the start, but we had hurricanes Orlene, Iniki, Paine, Roslyn, Seymour, Tina, Virgil, and Winifred all in a row. I don't think we'll get 8 consecutive hurricanes this year, but it's not out of the question. We'll have to wait and see. Ryan1000 13:40, July 29, 2011 (UTC) ::::::Back up to 10%, not out of the woods yet. Ryan1000 22:59, July 29, 2011 (UTC) 96E.INVEST It's now invested and up to 40%. It's looking very well organized, and we have a pretty good chance of seeing possibly yet another hurricane out of Eugene. Let's watch this one too, because if it does become hurricane Eugene, we have the first 5 storms be hurricanes, just one behind 1966's record. Ryan1000 21:32, July 30, 2011 (UTC) :Now at 70%!YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'''ropical]] 01:36, July 31, 2011 (UTC) At 70% now. Could be a tropical cyclone by August 1st. Hurricane Andrew (aka User: Andrew444) 00:04, July 31, 2011 (UTC) :August 1st? Why not tomorrow? YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'ropical]] 01:36, July 31, 2011 (UTC) :: ::Later today you mean. We have to see Eugene from this wave. Given the conditions ahead of it, on top of it's well-defined structure, I can also see yet another hurricane coming from this. This year is far above the long term average for number of hurricanes, but not so much named storms. 'Ryan1000' 02:10, July 31, 2011 (UTC) Tropical Depression Five-E :::The fifth tropical depression of the 2011 PHS has formed! Looks like this could very well be TS Eugene in a few hours. Hurricane Andrew (aka User: Andrew444) 12:48, July 31, 2011 (UTC) :::::Forecasted to become ANOTHER hurricane. YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'ropical]] 14:09, July 31, 2011 (UTC) ::::::The Estern Pacific will be having a hurricane party. OWEN2011 14:21, July 31, 2011 (UTC) :::::::Wow, this is the first season since 1966 to have the first 5 storms become hurricanes, assuming Eugene will become one. At the rate we are going we'd be better with ''all of the seasons storms be hurricanes for god's sake... Oh well. It's worth watching. Updated the Active storms header. Ryan1000 14:51, July 31, 2011 (UTC) Tropical Storm Eugene And here it is. Still forecast to become a hurricane as it heads out to sea. At least it's worth mentioning... Ryan1000 15:22, July 31, 2011 (UTC) :Yay!!!!!!!!!!! YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'''ropical]] 16:07, July 31, 2011 (UTC) ::For the record, if this storm becomes a hurricane by August 2nd(or 3rd), it will be the earliest date for the season's 5th hurricane since 1992! Are you kidding me? That's incredible! 1994 sure had a ton of hurricanes, and some really strong ones, but lleana, that year's 5th hurricane, or Li, which did on the same day, didn't become the season's 5th hurricane until August 12th. 1993 didn't get their 5th 'cane(Keoni) until August 14. 1992 got Frank by July 15. No other season since 1995 has had their 5th hurricane before that. 1966 had the first 6 storms become hurricanes, but because there were no July storms that year, the 5th of those(Eileen) didn't become a hurricane until August 26. The EPac is already setting some pretty cool records. 'Ryan1000' 16:55, July 31, 2011 (UTC) :: ::Eugene sure is causing 2011 to set so many records. Hurricane Andrew (aka User: Andrew444) 22:16, July 31, 2011 (UTC) :::I think the NHC is underestimating Eugene right now. They say 40 knots when Eugene looks like a 45 knot tropical storm. Either way, I think there's potential for a cat 2/3 (especially if Eugene keeps south for longer than expected). Suprise11 03:34, August 1, 2011 (UTC) ::::It's now up to 60 mph, but it's still organizing and it should become at LEAST a category 1 storm. The latest NHC forecast takes it only to 80 mph. ''That's underexaggerating IMO. Ryan1000 13:31, August 1, 2011 (UTC) :::::Up to 65 mph, and the forecast now takes it to high-end Cat 1 strength. --HurricaneMaker99 15:09, August 1, 2011 (UTC) ::::: :::::probable a hurricane now Yeah, i'd be surprised if it isn't upgraded to one soon, it's really getting it's act together as it heads out to sea. Ryan1000 19:44, August 1, 2011 (UTC) Hurricane Eugene It's a 'cane! 65 kts, 990 mbar per the latest NHC advisory. Forecast peak upped to Cat 2. --HurricaneMaker99 20:35, August 1, 2011 (UTC) :When Adrian was at similar strength it was forecast to peak as a strong category 2. Dora was forecast to be a solid category 3. Who knows where Eugene will go. CobraStrike (t)(b)( ) 21:20, August 1, 2011 (UTC) Man... it's not even August 10th, and we've had five canes. This is the first time since 1966 that the first five tropical storms became hurricanes, and the first time since 1992 that a season's fifth hurricane formed this early. Hurricane Andrew (aka User: Andrew444) 21:02, August 1, 2011 (UTC) :Yay! Five for five. Forecast peak for me is 105 knt. YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'''ropical]] 21:44, August 1, 2011 (UTC) ::Hurricane party! 5th of the season, but it likely won't affect land. It could be a cat. 3 briefly, but it won't affect land. Oh well. Great to see it intensify, first time in 45 years with the first 5 storms become hurricanes. 'Ryan1000' 00:04, August 2, 2011 (UTC) :::Oh well? You want it to affect land? But anyway, Eugene looks great right now. YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'ropical]] 01:42, August 2, 2011 (UTC) :::The new advisory just said: ...EUGENE CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... What? CobraStrike (t)(b)( ) 02:58, August 2, 2011 (UTC) :::::::??? It's 80 knts and looks great. 13:42, August 2, 2011 (UTC) :::::Cat 2 now; 85 kts, 973 mbar. Forecast to peak as a high-end Cat 2. --HurricaneMaker99 14:59, August 2, 2011 (UTC) :::::: ::::::If Eugene becomes the third major hurricane of the season, the season will be over a month and a half ahead of climatology (3rd major forms by Sep. 20)! That's incredible since the season's not in an El Nino and the season's in the inactive period. Suprise11 15:31, August 2, 2011 (UTC) :::::so Eugene is a cat 2 Hurricane now the good thing of this it could strength all what he wants and not affected anyone' AllanJeffs 15:41 August 2 , 2011''' ::::::Eugene is predicted to peak at 110 mph, but it could certainly be a major hurricane. Wow... This is a ENSO year, but it in the EPac, it's like we're in a pure El Nino! Hurricane Andrew (aka User: Andrew444) 17:06, August 2, 2011 (UTC) :::::::::I hope it becomes Cat 3. YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'''ropical]] 17:39, August 2, 2011 (UTC) :::::::::She is definately forming an eye. CobraStrike (t)(b)( ) 18:41, August 2, 2011 (UTC) The next Eugene advisory '''strengthens' it to a 105 mph hurricane with a minimum pressure of 970 mbar. Eugene is now forecast to become a MAJOR HURRICANE within 12 hours. YE, you might get your wish. CobraStrike (t)(b)( ) 20:42, August 2, 2011 (UTC) :Knts please? mph is for meto babies IMO. YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'''ropical]] 22:38, August 2, 2011 (UTC) ::That would be 90 knots sir, a category 2. CobraStrike (t)(b)( ) 22:48, August 2, 2011 (UTC) Major Hurricane Eugene 8pm NHC advisory places Eugene at 100 kts, 960 mbar; ladies and gents, we now have the third MH of the 2011 PHS! --HurricaneMaker99 02:58, August 3, 2011 (UTC) :YAY!!!!!!!!!!!!!! HIP HIP HORRAY! Yay for Eugene! Good news is that it is out to sea. EP, 05, 2011080318, , BEST, 0, 158N, 1148W, 115, 947, HU, 64, NEQ, 40, 35, 30, 40, 1007, 240, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, EUGENE, D, 03:01, August 3, 2011 (UTC) ::Eugene is just impossible to forecast. Probably will become Cat 4. Suprise11 03:19, August 3, 2011 (UTC) :::Didn't become Cat 4 yet, but the NHC is giving a 10% chance of Eugene strengthening to that. Right now its a high end Cat 3. The NHC also said that its possible that Eugene peaked already. Suprise11 15:06, August 3, 2011 (UTC) :::....Annular! Yqt1001 17:55, August 3, 2011 (UTC) :::::I swear this thing looks like a category 5 based on the sattelite imagery. I wouldn't be surprised if it does so soon. This thing is really exciting! No affect on land and a very strong storm. 'Ryan1000' 19:56, August 3, 2011 (UTC) ::What's sort of shocking to me is that Eugene looks '''EXACTLY' like an upside-down Hurricane Daniel from 2006. Look at the similarities. CobraStrike (t)(b)( ) 20:01, August 3, 2011 (UTC) Hurricane Daniel 2006 Peak Upsidedown.jpg|Upsidedown Daniel Hurricane Eugene Aug 3 2011 1900 UTC.jpg|Eugene :::::::::::Yay, now a Cat 4 per RBT. It is Dora all over again. EP, 05, 2011080318, , BEST, 0, 158N, 1148W, 115, 947, HU, 64, NEQ, 40, 35, 30, 40, 1007, 240, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, EUGENE, D, YE 20:24, August 3, 2011 (UTC) :::That's awesome, the 3rd category 4 hurricane and it's only the beginning of August? Anyways, where do you get that info? CobraStrike (t)(b)( ) 20:32, August 3, 2011 (UTC) :::::::::::The NHC RBT :P. YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'''ropical]] 20:34, August 3, 2011 (UTC) ::::Link please :O CobraStrike (t)(b)( ) 20:35, August 3, 2011 (UTC) :::::::::::::I have no link, just received the data on a chat room. YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'ropical]] 20:39, August 3, 2011 (UTC) :::::Anyways, new advisory out and puts Eugene at 140mph (120 kts) and a pressure of 942 mbar. CobraStrike (t)(b)( ) 20:46, August 3, 2011 (UTC) :::::::::::::THIS IS AMAZING. I THOUGHT IT WOULD HAVE A HARD TIME GETTING HIGHER THAN 55 KNTS AND IT IS 120 KNTS. THIS IS INSANE. This is better than Adrian! YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'ropical]] 21:09, August 3, 2011 (UTC) :::::::Amazing!!! Eugene and Emily the 2 E names storms have continue to contradicted the NHC because they say that Eugene will peaked at CAT 1 and now is a 4 and Emily continuing moving West insteas of northwest how can i Indent ? '''Allanjeffs '''21:50,August 3 2011 :::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::: ::::Use colons in the source code editing. CobraStrike (t)(b)( ) 22:02, August 3, 2011 (UTC) :::::::Adrian and Eugene were never forecast to get past category one at first, and despite the unfavorable conditions, they both exploded into very strong hurricanes. This is the third category 4 of the season, but the record in question is held by having 7 in 1993 and 1992. 'Ryan1000' 23:50, August 3, 2011 (UTC) :::::::: ::::::::Eugene now is a category 3 hurricane' Allanjeffs August 4. 2011 :::::::::Ryan, do you know what the record amount of Cat 4's are in a non el nino year. Suprise11 03:27, August 4, 2011 (UTC) ::::::::::1985 probaly. YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'ropical]] 13:34, August 4, 2011 (UTC) :::::::::::1992 and 1993 tie the record in question with 7 category 4 storms each. And yes 1985 did have the most in a NON El Nino year, but we still only had 3 TOTAL category 4's that year. If we get one more, we will beat that record for non-El Nino cat 4's. ''Ryan1000'' 01:00, August 5, 2011 (UTC) Hurricane Eugene (sadly) Eugene showed us she can explode out of nowhere, but its gone back down to category 2 strength again per RBT: EP, 05, 2011080418, BEST, 0, 170N, 1195W, '''95, 964, HU, 64, NEQ, 40, 35, 30, 40, 1009, 250, 25, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, EUGENE, D, CobraStrike (t)(b)( ) 19:34, August 4, 2011 (UTC) : It's a he, not a she. And Eugene may survive a bit before it dies, perhaps in the Central Pacific briefly. Ryan1000 02:33, August 5, 2011 (UTC) :::::Down to 65 knts. YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'''ropical]] 14:12, August 5, 2011 (UTC) Tropical Storm Eugene (sadly) Now it's been knocked down to a tropical storm. It's really dying out. 'Ryan1000' 15:46, August 5, 2011 (UTC) :Dang it! Edit conflict lol. Anyayws, it expected to die out in a few days. CobraStrike (t)(b)( ) 15:50, August 5, 2011 (UTC) ::Looks like 35 knts to me. YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'ropical]] 16:20, August 5, 2011 (UTC) :::Really? That structure could have me confused for a Cat 1, or at least a strong TS. Still, since it's on a weakening trend, I'd argue roughly 50 kts. --HurricaneMaker99 16:43, August 5, 2011 (UTC) ::Yeah it reminds me of Hurricane Igor of last year as it was battering down on Atlantic Canada. (which is where I am at now =D) Yqt1001 18:33, August 5, 2011 (UTC) :::I think I have psychic powers, lol; 2pm advisory knocked Eugene down to 50 kts. --HurricaneMaker99 01:38, August 6, 2011 (UTC) Remnants of Eugene (sadly) And its dead.Allanjeffs 16:54, August 6, 2011 (UTC) :Sadly, yes. YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'ropical]] 23:00, August 6, 2011 (UTC) ::It's still hanging on at near 0%, don't count it out immediately, but it likely is just down and out. 'Ryan1000' 04:39, August 7, 2011 (UTC) ::::ex-Eugene wont quit :P. YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'ropical]] 23:43, August 7, 2011 (UTC) 97E.INVEST AOI: Gulf of Tehuantepec Has not been invested, but an area of disturbed weather has formed. NHC has 10% on it. Let's keep watch on this system, may be our Fernanda. CobraStrike (t)(b)( ) 00:49, August 2, 2011 (UTC) : Now it's up to 20%. If this thing becomes a hurricane, it will tie 1966 for the all-time record of hurricanes since the start of the season. 'Ryan1000' 07:47, August 2, 2011 (UTC) : : : Also, if the AOI somehow manages to reach hurricane strength, it would be the earliest date for a season's sixth hurricane since 1992's Georgette, which reached that strength on July 16, 1992. Hurricane Andrew (aka User: Andrew444) 17:04, August 2, 2011 (UTC) 97E.INVEST I'm seeing this thing as Invest 97 on Wunderground http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/ep201197_model.html, so I think this has been invest'd? Anyway, most of the models are taking this W/WNW-ward, though we have an outlier in BAMD, which predicts this thing to go as far south as near 5°N! --HurricaneMaker99 17:29, August 2, 2011 (UTC) :Recon in this system. YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'ropical]] 17:37, August 2, 2011 (UTC) :Yes, it's on track. BTW 50% CobraStrike (t)(b)( ) 18:39, August 2, 2011 (UTC) : :if it Develops into Fernada it would not be a hurricane because it only has two days in favorable conditions '''Allanjeffs '''August 2, 2011 ::The wave is now at '''70%' chance of formation. Looks like Fernanda is coming soon! If it does what the IVCN says, than welcome to the 6th named storm and 6th hurricane of the year! ::::Actually, Tropical Storm Fernanda is likely, but not Hurricane Fernanda because 97E is really close to Hurricane Eugene. Hurricane Andrew (aka User: Andrew444) 22:20, August 2, 2011 (UTC) ::::::That should not be a problem since Eugene is going faster than Fernanda. YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'''ropical]] 22:37, August 2, 2011 (UTC) :::::::True. In the semi-long term, 15 kts will easily outrun a system moving 5 or even 10 kts. Besides, Eugene is moving WNW, so it should get its butt out of here soon. CobraStrike (t)(b)( ) 22:51, August 2, 2011 (UTC) :::::::'50% is the chance now. Looks like it's waning. CobraStrike (t)(b)( ) 20:39, August 3, 2011 (UTC) ::::::::Down to 40%. I'm thinking Fernanda will have to wait. --HurricaneMaker99 03:26, August 4, 2011 (UTC) :::::::: ::::::::Is '''10 now sorry for the confusion I was sleppy when I plost Allanjeffs 15 :16 August 4 2011 :::::::::STFU. Why is it going out? There is some convection. Why are you saying never, an din fact I am surprised that it is at 1%. YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'''ropical]] 20:12, August 4, 2011 (UTC):: :::::::::::Long poof. YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'ropical]] 19:00, August 11, 2011 (UTC) 07E.GREG AOI:Off Central America And another wave comes in the EPac. It is slowly heading westward and it may become Fernanda in the long future, and if it becomes a hurricane, we will tie 1966 for the record number of consecutive hurricanes since the start of the season. Currently it's only at 10% however. 'Ryan1000' 23:52, August 11, 2011 (UTC) :We currently own the record, it is not a tie. YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'ropical]] 01:51, August 12, 2011 (UTC) ::What do you mean? 1966 had the first 6 storms become hurricanes. This season had the first 5 do so. We need one more hurricane to tie 1966's record. 'Ryan1000' 17:14, August 12, 2011 (UTC) :::The first six named storms became hurricane. However, they were intervening depressions in between these hurricanes.YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'ropical]] ::::I don't think this AOI is going to become a hurricane. Development is expected to be slow, and 10% (according to the NHC) at this far west in the basin isn't promising. We'll have to wait and see on this one. Suprise11 18:39, August 12, 2011 (UTC) :::::At every system at 10% they say something like this. And the storms that form west are favorable for development and over warm waters. YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'ropical]] 19:08, August 12, 2011 (UTC) :::::This is the invest off of CA, not the one far at sea, that one is now 98E below. So this one could easily be Hurricane Fernanda as it heads out to sea, but 98E is going into much colder waters down the road. 'Ryan1000' 05:25, August 13, 2011 (UTC) :::::: :::::: ::::::At 30%. TD 7-E or TS Greg? Hurricane Andrew (444) 18:03, August 15, 2011 (UTC) 70%! Yqt1001 13:45, August 16, 2011 (UTC) Update: It's now TS Greg. 17 Aug 2011 (by Anonymous 2.0) 22:08 (UTC+8) Hip, hip, hooray! Hurricane Andrew (444) 15:19, August 17, 2011 (UTC) Tropical Depression Seven-E New TD! YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'ropical]] 20:46, August 16, 2011 (UTC) : And forecast to be... yet another hurricane? Man, the EPac is going crazy with hurricanes, and if this storm(Greg) becomes a hurricane and by chance, Fernanda becomes one, we will have the first 7 storms become hurricanes, the all-time record if that happens. 'Ryan1000' 23:58, August 16, 2011 (UTC) Tropical Storm Greg 45 knts. YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'ropical]] 15:24, August 17, 2011 (UTC) Hurricane Greg : Should be change to hurricane Greg EP, 07, 2011081800, , BEST, 0, 173N, 1075W, 65, 987, HU .Allanjeffs 01:42, August 18, 2011 (UTC) ::YE, this might be too much to ask, but could you please send some hurricanes to the ATL? Preferably out to sea, but I've had enough of watching these storms become category 4 hurricanes in 12 hours and watching the ATL storms struggle to maintain their convection... Yqt1001 01:51, August 18, 2011 (UTC) :::I don't have control over that. YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'ropical]] 02:25, August 18, 2011 (UTC) ::::Personally, I would not have upgraded it into a hurricane. While I do see the data pointed out by the NHC, I would have put it at 60 kts on the following reasons: SAB (SSD) was still at T3.5, UW-CIMMS was still at T3.3, and while data T's were at 4.0, instinct and final T #'s don't really suggest 65 kts (more like a compromise of 60 kts). I would have waited for the next m-wave pass to see whether the eye has strengthened or organized at least slightly... but, that's just my opinion. But, that doesn't really matter right now, as it would eventually (or is currently) reach hurricane status. 'Darren23' | 02:55, August 18, 2011 (UTC) :::::hey Darren good to see that you back Allanjeffs 03:15, August 18, 2011 (UTC) ::::::Gah, who cares, Greg would have been a 'cane anyways, and keep in mind Fernanda isn't quite done yet; it still could briefly become a hurricane before dying down. It(Fernanda) is now up to 60 mph and Greg's a minimal cat 1. I wouldn't be surprised if Greg takes advantage of the favorable conditions ahead of it a bit and explodes like Eugene and Adrian did earlier this season. We'll wait and see about that though. 'Ryan1000' 05:18, August 18, 2011 (UTC) :::::::Weakening now Allanjeffs 03:35, August 19, 2011 (UTC) Tropical Storm Greg (2nd Time) :::::::::Its a tropical storm now Allanjeffs 14:45, August 19, 2011 (UTC) ::::::::::35 knts. Bah, everyone come back to the EPAC! YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'ropical]] 14:54, August 20, 2011 (UTC) 06E.FERNANDA 98E. Invest Poof, and there you go. Just as it was given a chance of formation for the first time, it was invested immediately. Currently having a 10% chance of formation whilst moving west or WSW. CobraStrike (t)(b)( ) 02:17, August 13, 2011 (UTC) :Yay!!! YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'ropical]] 02:33, August 13, 2011 (UTC) ::WOW. Already at '''70% '''and looking better defined than Franklin or any of the Atlantic invets. CobraStrike (t)(b)( ) 15:06, August 13, 2011 (UTC) :::Yeah it's looking nice. NHC says that a TD could be forming and advisories could be starting soon. Yqt1001 16:23, August 13, 2011 (UTC) ::Up to 80% now. Yqt1001 18:45, August 13, 2011 (UTC) :Yay!! Could we go 6 for 6 or even 7 for 7. YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'ropical]] 19:23, August 13, 2011 (UTC) ::I have a feeling that this could be Pewa, and not Fernanda. CobraStrike (t)(b)( ) 20:04, August 13, 2011 (UTC) :::Before I get everyone confused, '''the CPAC it is ''NOT a basin''' so either way if it becomes a hurricane we will be 6/6 (unless the disturbance near MX forms first). YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'''ropical]] 21:21, August 13, 2011 (UTC) ::: :::Tropical Depression Six-E (or Tropical Depression One-C) is coming. Hurricane Andrew (444) 22:53, August 13, 2011 (UTC) :::::One-C? This is nowhere near the CPHC, east of 130, CPHC is 140.YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'ropical]] 23:53, August 13, 2011 (UTC) ::::::It doesnt't matter if it becomes Pewa or Fernanda, if it becomes a hurricane, we will tie 1966 for the first 6 named storms be hurricanes, and it's also the first year to have the first 6 ''storms become hurricanes. 1966 had many depressions not reach storm strength in between the hurricane streak that year, so this year is already record-setting in many ways. Ryan1000 01:33, August 14, 2011 (UTC) :::::::::God, this system is looking worse and worse. YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'''ropical]] 04:33, August 14, 2011 (UTC) :::::::::::Down to 70%. This forum has became dead and it is suppose to be the most active forum on Hurricane Wiki.YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'ropical]] 15:00, August 14, 2011 (UTC) :::::::::::::Still at 70%. WHERE IS EVERYBODY? YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'ropical]] 18:58, August 14, 2011 (UTC) ::::::::::::::Probably over at the ATL forums. It's been a while since Eugene, and in that time, we've gotten both Franklin and, as of today, Gert, not to mention the other systems worth watching in the ATL. --HurricaneMaker99 19:08, August 14, 2011 (UTC) Well, all of the storms in NAtl are just pathetic of yet. Franklin spun fish for 30 hours and Gert won't hit Bermuda too hard, plus 92L is rather close to Gert and if that wave becomes Harvey it likely won't affect land anyways. This wave is future hurricane Fernanda in my book, and we should pay some attention here since the Atlantic hasn't been interesting as of yet. Sure we had a lot of storms thus far in NAtl but most of them were weak, short-lived, and remained at sea. We still haven't had any giant U.S. major hurricanes as of yet, but I fear we will indeed have one coming at some point in this season. 'Ryan1000' 21:02, August 14, 2011 (UTC) :SHIPS predicts a peak of 56mph... Yqt1001 03:04, August 15, 2011 (UTC) ::Up to 80%. YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'ropical]] 13:43, August 15, 2011 (UTC) ::This could be a warning for Hawaii if TS Fernanda/ Pewa comes. :( Hurricane Andrew (444) 13:59, August 15, 2011 (UTC) ::::This aint going anywhere near Hawaii. Too far south. YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'ropical]] 15:47, August 15, 2011 (UTC) :::::Approaching the CPHC's area of responsibility, only 7 degrees of longitude to go. CobraStrike (t)(b)( ) 16:25, August 15, 2011 (UTC) ::::: :::::Down to 70%. But according to the NHC, just a little more devolpment and we have the 6th tropical cyclone of the 2011 PHS. Hurricane Andrew (444) 18:03, August 15, 2011 (UTC) Tropical Depression Six-E Here we go!YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'ropical]] 20:52, August 15, 2011 (UTC) : So it looks that TD 6 will be tropical storm Fernanda but not a hurricane but we will see Allanjeffs 21:06, August 15, 2011 (UTC) : Six-E's on the road to becoming the 6th tropical storm of the season, but the 6th hurricane? IDK, the NHC doesn't take it up to hurricane status. But I would love to see 2011 tie 1966 for the all time record of most consecutive hurricanes from the start. Oh, and Allanjeffs, you misspelled "Fernanda". Hurricane Andrew (444) 21:15, August 15, 2011 (UTC) ::: Thanks Hurricane Andrew is that I am always at hurryAllanjeffs 22:26, August 15, 2011 (UTC) ::: Will probably enter CPAC as I said earlier...my predicton takes this to a 60 mph tropical storm. CobraStrike (t)(b)( ) 23:14, August 15, 2011 (UTC) :::: What an epic fail! 06:59, August 16, 2011 (UTC) :::::Epic fails are bad :P YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'ropical]] 14:20, August 16, 2011 (UTC) Tropical Storm Fernanda 40 knt per RBT. YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'ropical]] 14:20, August 16, 2011 (UTC) Yay! The sixth tropical storm of the season! And if you didn't know, Fernanda has made history. This is the tenth time '''Fernanda' has been used to name a tropical cyclone. In other words, Fernanda now ties Estelle as the most frequently used name in EPAC history, and also ties with Estelle and Arlene as the most frequently used name in W. Hem. history. Hurricane Andrew (444) 17:01, August 16, 2011 (UTC) Where is everyone?! Since I last posted, Fernanda is up to 50 mph, and she could make the season history. Nope, 1966 will still retain the all time record of most consecutive hurricanes from the start. Hurricane Andrew (444) 15:17, August 17, 2011 (UTC) :No, 2011 owns the record. 1966 had intervening depression's. YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'''ropical]] 15:23, August 17, 2011 (UTC) : :Last NHC advisory issued... now in the CPAC. It is the first storm in that area since Omeka last December, and I believe this is the first time since Lana in 2009 that a tropical cyclone crossed the EPAC/CPAC boundary (note: Lana was only a TD before its crossing). Hilda was the last crossing, I overlooked quite a few storms. Hurricane Andrew (444) 13:06, August 18, 2011 (UTC) ::No, Hilda 09 was the most recent to move into the AOR. Get your facts right. YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'ropical]] 14:18, August 18, 2011 (UTC) :: :::If Fernanda survives its journey through the central pacific, I think Fernanda could regenerate (assuming it becomes a remnant low) and become a tropical storm again. The real question here is that if it does survive, can it become a hurricane before it would cross over into the West Pacific. Suprise11 06:18, August 19, 2011 (UTC) ::: Post-Tropical Cyclone Fernanda And there goes the first storm of this year's EPAC season to fail to reach hurricane strength. I'm honestly quite happy about this, since it looks like Fernanda and Harvey might go hand-in-hand to level the playing field, just a ''little bit. --HurricaneMaker99 03:06, August 20, 2011 (UTC) Bye, Fernanda! At least you didn't reach hurricane strength. I'm getting sick of hurricanes. Now there is one record 2011 has failed to break: the most consecutive named storms that reached hurricane status from the start (technically, 2011 owns the record for most consecutive storms becoming hurricanes from the start, but 1966 still holds the record I said above). Hurricane Andrew (444) 14:14, August 20, 2011 (UTC) Retirements at a glance Started this section early. With three hurricanes at hand, I just felt like starting this section. Anywho, what are your predictions? Mine: *'Adrian - 1%' No effects on land, intensity doesn't earn retirements. *'Beatriz - 10%' Impact not significant, while there are 4 deaths, I don't think it's going to be retired. *'Calvin - 1%' Was indeed an interesting storm. - HurricaneSpin (Talk) 21:07, July 8, 2011 (UTC) :Well, there are no storms with any reasonable chance of retirement, but if I had to put a number on it? I would put 5% to Beatriz and keep everyone else, since they did nothing. However, the season is far from over, and there is always a possibility of a destructive late-season storm like Kenna or Pauline. As of now, i'd wait on this section. I also made this in the WPac forum just now, but it should wait there too. Ryan1000 22:47, July 8, 2011 (UTC) : : :Here are mine: : :Adrian - 2% 'I don't think so, intensities don't determine retirements. And Adrian's staying, unless he pulls a Knut out of the hat. :'Beatriz '- 7%' Unless we get an Alma- like situation, no. 4 deaths are not enough, and Mexico has gone through worse than her. :Calvin - 0% 'He's gonna stay, no matter what. The end. :'Dora - 3% 'See Adrian's section. :'Eugene - 1% 'See Dora's, Calvin's, and Adrian's sections. :And I wouldn't be surprised if Beatriz is retired, you know of the EPac's storm history (for example, they let Alma, a storm that did next to nothing (but Alma does means "soul" in Spanish) get sacrificed, while they set a monster, Agatha, free. That's pathetic). Andrew444 02:26, July 9, 2011 (UTC) Here are mine (Until Calvin) *Adrian – 0%:Unless it's some dictator's name, hell no. *Beatriz – 2%:Why the heck would this one be retired? *Calvin – 0%:I love fish :P 'Darren23 | 02:38, July 9, 2011 (UTC) :A bit early but here are mine: ::Adrian; 0%: ^ what Darren said ::Beatriz; 4%: Arlene hurt Mexico more, but Mexico seems resilient to retire names anymore ::Calvin; 0%: Became a hurricane, but that's it. : Yqt1001 13:50, July 9, 2011 (UTC) Here are mine: * Adrian: 1% Not enough impact * Beatriz: 5% Did not devastate the economy * Calvin 0% YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'''ropical]] Adrian-0%, Beatriz-10%, Calvin-0%, Dora-5%. OWEN2011 16:11, July 22, 2011 (UTC) Mid-season forecasts What are you guy mid-season forecasts. Mines is 14-9-4. YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'ropical]] :I am expecting a near-normal season here, if not slightly below normal, and I am calling for, say 14-16 storms, 6-8 hurricanes, and 2-4 majors, but no category 5's. Until Calvin dissipates, I guess the next thing to watch is 08W in the WPac, which is currently Goring by PAGASA and could become future Ma-on. Ryan1000 19:24, July 9, 2011 (UTC) ::I'm gonna go to the lower end of all y'all's forecasts and go for 12 NS, 7 H, 3 MH and also no C5's (EPAC only, I hate forecasting CPAC). Apparently, this is close to the CPC forecast of a median of 12 NS, 6.5 H and 2 MH. Here's my monthly forecast: *Jun: 2TS, 2H, 1MH *Jul: 3TS, 1H, 0MH *Aug: 3TS, 2H, 1MH *Sep: 3TS, 2H, 1MH *Oct: 1TS, 0H, 0MH *Nov: 0TS, 0H, 0MH *Dec: Heck no 'Darren23' | 20:18, July 9, 2011 (UTC) '''HurricaneSpin's' Atlantic: 16-13-8-5-1 (Maria) ACE=108 Pacific: 18-14-7-3-0 (Norma) ACE=101 - HurricaneSpin (Talk) 20:26, July 9, 2011 (UTC) Oh yeah, ATL. I'm going with 16 (±3) NS, 8(±2) H, 5(±1) MH, ≥0 C5, or above normal with an ACE of 110-195, or (assuming median ACE is 87.5) 125-222% above normal mean because conditions are still very favorable for significant development in the season. Darren23 | 20:57, July 9, 2011 (UTC) :My predictions: ::Atlantic: 16-8-4-2 ::Pacific: 14-7-3-0 :Yqt1001 21:49, July 9, 2011 (UTC) : :I think the Atlantic will have 14-9-5. IMO, the pacific is more tricky since we already have had the first three storms become hurricanes and 1 major. I would go with 11-12 storms, 6-8 hurricanes, and 1-5 majors (I wouldn't be suprised if the season ends up like 2010 and has no majors through peak of season.) :ACE for the Atlantic should be around 150. The Pacific ACE should be between 50-80. Suprise11 22:53, July 9, 2011 (UTC) :2010? Why is 2010 being discussed? Do you realize that the 2010 PHS an anomaly? The environment is much more favorable than 2010. In fact, if this seaosn shuts down later this month, and pulls a 2010/1977, I will be shocked. YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'''ropical]] 22:57, July 9, 2011 (UTC) ::While 2010 was anomaly (Number of June storms, June C5, lack of activity afterward), because we are in the inactive Pacific era, a repeat will not be surprising, but it is not really expected. And YE, an interment is a burial :P 'Darren23' | 23:11, July 9, 2011 (UTC) :::It will be surprising, because a 2010 type season has occurred only twice in the past 44 years. So the odds of an 2010 type season is 1/22.YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'ropical]] 23:29, July 9, 2011 (UTC) ::: :::I meant 2010 in terms of the possibility of no majors through peak of season. For example, despite 2003's high number of named storms, there were no majors. Suprise11 23:36, July 9, 2011 (UTC) ::::Given the fact that we already have three major and one cane, it is unlikely that we will have no majors in the season. Most years have a Baja storm that becomes an MH if not an MH fish storm. In fact, I could only find two seasons since 1977 with no MH's during the peak (2003 and 2010). Odds=1/12. YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'ropical]] 23:43, July 9, 2011 (UTC) :::: ::::True. I gave a big range since because of the difficulty for me to predict majors for this season. I honestly think we will get 2 more majors for a total of 3 majors. This is inside my range. Suprise11 23:50, July 9, 2011 (UTC) :::I'm not entirely sure, but I do believe that a 2010 repeat is next to impossible here. Not to say a 2010 repeat won't happen, but the chances are not good. I changed the tables below the forumheader and the WAD(Worldwide activity discussion) now has it's own forum. I expect a major or two to come in the season's peak, but per 2003 and last year, that's not a gurantee, but again, it's not likely we won't have a peak-season major hurricane this year. The only thing out there as of now is the new TD in the WPac(excluding Calvin, he's pretty much gone). 'Ryan1000 '01:33, July 10, 2011 (UTC) ::: :::Well... my predictions are on the worldwide discusssion page, but here are my E. Pac and C.Pac mid- season forecasts. And for the E.Pac, we've seen 3-3-1 already, but anywho: :::E.Pac: :::14-7-2-0 (get down to Max + one Atlantic crossover) ACE= ~105 Net TC activity: 101% :::C.Pac (note: crossover(s) from the EPac are excluded): :::(2-4)-(1-3)-(0-2)-(0-1) ACE = ~20 :::I believe in the CPac, we'll get down to Unala, possibly Wali, or if the CPac wants to be like 1982, Ana. :::For my other forecasts, go to the WAD and 2011-12 S. Hem pages. Andrew444 13:32, July 10, 2011 (UTC) ::: ::: Very mid season predictions Mines are 14-10-6. YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'ropical]] 17:06, August 16, 2011 (UTC) Mine is also 14-10-6 (please see my blog http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/User_blog:Andrew444/Remainder_of_2011_and_2012_forecast_calls). Hurricane Andrew (444) 18:32, August 16, 2011 (UTC) EPAC hurricane drought Any overdue areas in the EPAC? YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'''ropical]] 17:06, August 16, 2011 (UTC) : YE, Southern California is overdue. Last hurricane to make landfall was in 1858, and the last tropical storm was in 1939. However, numerous depressions have made landfall since then. Suprise11 17:24, August 16, 2011 (UTC) : : Suprise11, the 1858 hurricane did bring hurricane force winds ashore, but it actually just barely missed landfall. Hurricane Andrew (444) 18:39, August 16, 2011 (UTC)